Tiangong-1’s Uncontrolled Re-entry into Earth’s Atmosphere
China’s first space station, Tiangong-1, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around April 3, give or take a week. While some media reports have raised concerns about the potential risks, experts say the chances of being hit by debris from the space station are extremely low.
What is Tiangong-1?
Tiangong-1 was launched in 2011 as a training platform for a larger space station that China is planning to launch in the 2020s. It was never intended to be a permanent fixture, with a planned operational lifespan of just two years. However, the space station exceeded its expected lifespan and was officially announced to be out of control in 2016.
Where Will Tiangong-1 Land?
According to the latest predictions from the Aerospace Corporation, Tiangong-1 is likely to re-enter along two narrow bands at 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south latitude. This puts parts of China, southern Europe, the northern U.S., as well as parts of South America, Tasmania, and New Zealand in its likely path.
What are the Chances of Being Hit by Debris?
The vast majority of Tiangong-1 is expected to vaporize upon entering Earth’s atmosphere. However, denser parts of the station, such as engines or batteries, may survive with chunks as large as 220 pounds making it to the surface.
Despite this, the odds of someone being hit by a chunk of Tiangong-1 debris are extremely low. According to the Aerospace Corporation, there has only been one reported case of a person being struck by space debris in the past half century.
How Common are Uncontrolled Re-entries?
Uncontrolled re-entries of space stations are actually quite common. In the history of the Space Age, many space stations and satellites have re-entered Earth’s atmosphere without incident.
One notable example is the United States’ first manned space station, SkyLab, which began de-orbiting after eight years in space in 1978. Despite fears that the 77-ton space station would fall on a populated area, it eventually broke up on entry and littered a swath of unpopulated land in Western Australia.
What is the Impact of Uncontrolled Re-entries?
While uncontrolled re-entries are common, they can have a negative impact on Earth’s environment. Debris from re-entering space stations and satellites can pollute the atmosphere and create hazards for aircraft and ships.
What Measures Can be Taken to Mitigate the Risks?
There are a number of measures that can be taken to mitigate the risks associated with uncontrolled re-entries. These include:
- Designing spacecraft with features that allow for controlled re-entries
- Tracking space debris to identify potential hazards
- Developing technologies to remove space debris from orbit
By taking these steps, we can help to reduce the risks associated with uncontrolled re-entries and protect our planet from the harmful effects of space debris.