Moon’s Wobbly Orbit and Rising Seas: A Recipe for Record Flooding in the 2030s
Understanding the Lunar-Climate Connection
The moon’s orbit around Earth exhibits a gradual 18.6-year cycle, which influences the height of tides. When this cycle aligns with periods of high sea levels caused by climate change, it can amplify tidal flooding, leading to more frequent and severe nuisance floods.
Nuisance Floods: A Growing Threat
Nuisance floods are minor floods that occur at high tide, often inundating low-lying areas such as roads, parking lots, and subway stations. While they may not cause immediate catastrophic damage, their cumulative impact can strain infrastructure and disrupt daily life.
The 2015 Floods: A Case Study
In 2015, a strong lunar orbit effect coincided with high sea levels, resulting in widespread nuisance flooding in the United States. The minor lunar standstill, when the moon’s orbit is closest to the plane of Earth’s equator, intensified the tidal extremes, causing more than 600 tidal floods nationwide.
Predictions for the 2030s
Researchers have developed a computational model that combines sea level rise predictions, flooding thresholds, astronomical cycles, and other tide-influencing factors to forecast future flooding patterns. Their findings suggest that the 2030s will see a dramatic increase in nuisance flooding due to the combined effects of the lunar cycle and rising sea levels.
Coastal Areas at Risk
The study predicts that the Pacific coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific Islands will be particularly vulnerable to flooding. Honolulu, for example, is expected to experience 63 days of flooding by 2050, with most of the flooding concentrated in a three-month period.
Planning for the Future
Traditionally, scientists and policymakers have focused on rare, high-impact events such as 100-year storms. However, this study highlights the importance of planning for extreme months or seasons with exceptionally frequent flooding episodes.
Mitigating the Impacts
To mitigate the impacts of nuisance flooding, coastal communities can implement various adaptation measures, such as:
- Raising roads and seawalls
- Installing floodgates and pumps
- Restoring wetlands and other natural buffers
- Implementing flood warning systems
- Developing evacuation plans
Conclusion
The combination of the lunar orbit and rising sea levels poses a significant threat to coastal communities in the coming decades. By understanding the mechanisms behind nuisance flooding and planning for its increased frequency, we can take proactive steps to reduce its impacts and protect our coastal infrastructure and way of life.