Hurricane Elsa’s Early Arrival: A Sign of a Busy Season Ahead
Experts Forecast Active Hurricane Season Following Elsa
Hurricane Elsa, which formed south of the Tropic of Cancer in early July, has raised concerns among researchers that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season could be more active than usual. While Elsa quickly downgraded to a tropical storm, its early formation is a rare occurrence that has historically been associated with an increase in hurricane activity.
Increased Predictions for Named Storms and Hurricanes
Following Elsa’s development, atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University and his team have upgraded their predictions for the 2021 hurricane season. They now forecast at least 20 named tropical storms and nine named hurricanes, up from their previous prediction of 17 named storms and eight hurricanes.
Early Season Hurricanes as a Harbinger
According to Klotzbach, early season hurricane activity in the tropics is often a “harbinger of a very active season.” This is because such storms typically form in the “main development region,” which is the area between the Equator and the Tropic of Cancer, during the peak hurricane months of September and October.
National Hurricane Center’s Classification of Hyperactive Seasons
In the past, when hurricanes have formed before August 1, the National Hurricane Center has labeled those seasons as “hyperactive.” This designation indicates that the season is likely to produce a higher-than-average number of named storms and hurricanes.
NOAA’s Busier-Than-Usual Season Forecast
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is also forecasting a busier-than-usual hurricane season. Researchers are predicting 13 to 20 named storms and three to five major hurricanes, which is less active than the record-breaking 2020 season but still potentially troublesome.
Importance of Early Preparation
NOAA Acting Administrator Ben Friedman emphasizes the importance of early preparation, stating, “Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community.”
Record-Breaking 2020 Season as a Cautionary Tale
The brutal 2020 hurricane season, which saw a record-tying six hurricanes strike the United States, serves as a reminder of the devastating impact that these storms can have. Coastal communities must be prepared for the possibility of a similar season this year.
Steps to Prepare for Hurricane Season
To prepare for hurricane season, individuals and communities can take the following steps:
- Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov for information and resources on hurricane preparedness.
- Strengthen homes and safeguard families by visiting hurricanestrong.org, a website developed by the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) organization.
- Stay informed about hurricane forecasts and warnings from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center.
- Develop an evacuation plan and identify safe places to go if necessary.
- Stock up on emergency supplies, including food, water, first aid kits, and batteries.
Conclusion
Hurricane Elsa’s early arrival is a strong indicator that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season could be an active one. Coastal communities should take steps now to prepare for potential storms and ensure the safety of their residents.